1. Green Bay. It’s not just the maturation of Aaron Rodgers. It’s the carryover from a fluky end to 2009 (the weird playoff loss at Arizona) and the fact that only one team in football — New Orleans — had a better point differential than the Pack’s plus-164 last year. I like Jermichael Finley to become a great player in his second starting season. I don’t trust the pass-rush (where Clay Matthews is the only real thing), and I worry about two of the top three corners coming off ACL surgery, and aging. But the defensive front is formidable, and a very good match for the good run teams of the NFC North. I also like Weeks 2 through 5 on the schedule (Buffalo, at Chicago, Detroit, at Washington), which sets up for a strong start.

2. San Diego. I didn’t like how much the Chargers traded to get Ryan Mathews (the 28th and 40th picks in a strong draft) when they probably could have gotten him for less, but that doesn’t mean I don’t like what Mathews is going to do. I think he’ll be the offensive rookie of the year. He has everything a good back needs — opportunity (he should get 320 carries if healthy), playing from ahead a lot, and a good offensive line. And did I mention Philip Rivers will throw for 4,500 yards and contend strongly for MVP?

As with Green Bay, I don’t know where all the pass-rush will come from, but the Chargers are relying heavily on Larry English to break out of his freshman slump and give it to them — and hope that, in a salary-drive year, Shawne Merriman can give the franchise one last productive year. It’s more likely, I think, that Shaun Phillips has seven to 10 sacks and provides cover for English. I like the Chargers to go at least 5-1 in the division, which gives them an edge over the other three division winners, setting them up for home-field in the AFC playoffs.